Thursday, April 29, 2004
The Charisma Factor
A couple times in the past several weeks, I have expounded to Deb on what I see as a commonality between recent losers versus winners of races for President.
Charisma.
Dubya had it to some degree, if not as intensely as some. Gore didn’t have it at all.
Clinton had it in spades. Bob Dole was a terrible candidate; the candidate you put forth when you know you have little chance of winning anyway, and just want to reward a dues-paid guy in the party with the privilege of having run for historical footnote. Bush lacked it, especially beside Clinton.
Yet beside Dukakis, Bush wasn’t so lacking, and had the boost of being a continuation from one of the Great Presidents. This was closer to a contest of equals in that department.
Reagan was Mr. Charisma. Mondale had no chance against that. Carter wasn’t as totally lacking in Charisma as some, but again, couldn’t hold a candle to Reagan, on top of his other failings.
Even Carter versus Ford, you could say Carter had an edge in charisma, at least before we knew him well enough to regret it. Like Bush and Dukakis, it was closer to a contest of equals. This time history was on Carter’s side, due to the associations Ford had with Nixon and other issues.
Finally, Nixon was so not charismatic, and breaks the pattern. Not that McGovern being an opponent makes it much of a mystery why he won in 1972, no paranoia or shady business required.
Which brings us to 2004 and Kerry. I told my wife weeks ago that Kerry reminded me of Bob Dole in light of the charisma factor, so it amused me to see a comparison of the two men mentioned on Instapundit before I got around to posting these thoughts.
Kerry is one of the charisma-free candidates whose chances of winning are limited. Dubya is not a high charisma candidate, but he has some of “it” and that has only grown with his Presidency. He has a form of likability that might not be described as charisma, but surely doesn’t hurt. He also has history on his side. From here, Kerry doesn’t appear to have much chance even without all his real flaws.
You know you have a bad candidate when you find yourself wishing for Hillary or even Dean as the opposition to Bush, just in case Bush does lose and we’re letting the other guy loose at the wheel. Take a bad candidate, add a lack of charisma, Bush is the next President unless something truly weird happens. Even if he doesn’t lose Cheney and switch to Rice as his running mate.